Staff Reports
President Joe Biden seems to be in a tailspin that even the most optimistic Democrats can’t ignore. While he refuses to bow out of the 2024 race just yet, the poll numbers spell nothing short of disaster. With former President Donald Trump dominating in swing states, it’s a bleak outlook for the incumbent. Republicans might be tempted to sit back and enjoy the show, but the fight isn’t over until votes are counted. The bombing of attempts against Trump, Biden’s abysmal debate showing, and calls within his own party for him to step aside haven’t done Biden any favors.
Emerson College released a poll showing Trump leading Biden in seven critical swing states. When factoring in third-party candidates, here’s the lay of the land: Trump has a substantial lead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Notably, Trump is capturing 46% in Arizona against Biden’s dismal 36%. Even in states traditionally considered toss-ups like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump maintains a solid lead.
Town Hall: New Swing State Poll Spells Catastrophic News for Biden https://t.co/Zgzo0T2lQI
— Ian Hansen 🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@IanHansenFeed) July 18, 2024
Virginia, a state that has trended blue in recent elections, now has Trump ahead by 2% according to Emerson. Even when including third-party candidates, Trump remains in the lead. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a block of undecided voters still show an inclination to lean away from Biden. It’s almost as though the Democrats have become the architects of their own misfortune.
If the Emerson poll isn’t enough to shake Biden’s confidence, InsiderAdvantage released their own startling numbers. Trump enjoys a 4-point lead in Pennsylvania, a 7-point lead in Nevada, and a 5-point lead in Arizona. Their surveys echo the sentiment seen in other polls. Meanwhile, there’s no post-assassination attempt surge for Trump; instead, there’s an “enthusiasm gap” that Democrats can’t seem to close.
Trump’s lead is not just confined to old battlegrounds. Even Minnesota is looking up for grabs, a state that hasn’t gone red for president since 1972. RealClearPolling sums it up: Trump has a 4.3-point lead in the critical states. Even Michigan and Wisconsin, with their Democratic governors and tight Senate races, are leaning toward Trump. Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, has even been whispered as a replacement for Biden, as speculation swirls around a possible succession plan involving Kamala Harris.
Speaking of Harris, her numbers are even worse. InsiderAdvantage shows Trump trouncing her by wider margins than Biden in states like Georgia and Florida. Harris is polling 10 points behind Trump in both states. It’s almost as if the Democrats are swapping out one weak candidate for another with no real strategy in sight.
Pollsters and oddsmakers are taking notice. According to Sports Handle, Harris’s odds of becoming president are currently higher than Biden’s, thanks to rumors about Biden’s potential withdrawal and his recent positive Covid test. They have Trump sitting pretty with a 73.5% chance of reclaiming the White House this fall. Poly Market puts the odds of Biden dropping out at a staggering 87%, while his chances of winning have nosedived to a meager 6%.
In summary, the Democrats are navigating these turbulent waters with a blindfold, and Republicans would be wise to keep pushing forward until the finish line. Trump might not just be staging a comeback; he could be orchestrating a full-blown takeover, while Biden’s ship seemingly sinks further into the abyss.
