Staff Reports
Polling guru Nate Silver has just let the cat out of the bag: former President Donald Trump is strutting around with nearly a 60% chance of winning the upcoming election. In fact, his model assigns Trump a solid 58.2% likelihood of securing a majority in the Electoral College. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris has been tagged with a paltry 41.6% chance of pulling off the same feat. It’s almost as if Silver dropped a big ole’ “You’re in trouble, Kamala” bomb in the middle of a Democratic party.
Not long ago, Trump’s odds hovered at a mere 52.4%, while Harris skulked a bit closer at 47.3%. However, in an election climate that can feel more volatile than a toddler with a sugar rush, Trump’s numbers have seen an uptick since the last polling. Commentators might guard a healthy skepticism about whether it’s time for the Democrats to panic. Still, with Trump’s chance of victory rising to its best standing since July, the air is thick with the scent of fear— that very familiar whiff for those who supported the former president.
Silver attributes this newly bullish forecast to a combination of polling data from key battle states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. It’s not exactly shocking to hear that Harris is struggling to gain traction after the recent Democratic National Convention failed to generate any significant enthusiasm. Unlike a well-baked batch of cookies, her campaign just isn’t rising, and it seems that more mediocre polling continues to show her in a less-than-ideal light.
Trump poised to win Electoral College, pollster Nate Silver says https://t.co/Vce9jQcOae
— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) September 5, 2024
Even though Harris clings to slight leads in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, they aren’t enough to allow her to sleep soundly at night when faced with Trump’s resurgence. The polls notoriously underestimated Trump last election cycle, and all the indicators suggest that voters might just be whispering “not again” when it comes to the Vice President’s performative presence in swing states.
In the overall forecasting funhouse, national and statewide polling results seem to favor Harris. Still, any loss of ground in pivotal states like Pennsylvania and Michigan is a significant hit when crunching the numbers. The averaging game might not be kind to the Vice President as Trump’s support picks up steam, leaving him poised for a potentially stunning comeback. If there’s ever been a classic case of “hold on to your hats”— it’s now.
