Staff Reports
In the grand theater of international diplomacy, where actors play at a global scale, the United States finds itself navigating tricky waters with Russia, yet again. In this geopolitical soap opera, President Trump appears to be swinging like a pendulum between warmth for Vladimir Putin and affection for Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The question many folks are pondering is, what is Putin really up to, and why does he seem to be poking the proverbial bear by launching attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine?
It seems, as pointed out by a military intelligence analyst, that the blame game regarding President Trump’s ever-shifting strategies might not be entirely fair. According to this analyst, perhaps the former president was not adequately briefed by his advisors on how Putin operates – a man who, unsurprisingly, doesn’t think or act like an average American. Putin, it appears, holds all the cards, or at least that’s the narrative. With Russia’s robust military advantage – not just over Ukraine, but even over NATO – the idea that the U.S. could exert any real leverage seems, well, optimistic at best.
Now, economic sanctions, the trump cards of international politics, have been a favorite tactic against Russia. But, as our analyst points out, we’ve been throwing sanctions at Russia for a decade, and Putin seems to have anticipated every move. Russia has been strategically reducing its economic weaknesses, cushioning itself against the impact of such measures, and the results have shown. This is like trying to put out a forest fire with a garden hose – understandable, but not altogether effective. Given China and India’s continuing trade with Russia, it seems like the sanctions have more holes than Swiss cheese, as they fail to curb Russia’s ambitions or severely impact its economy.
The analyst goes further to describe how Russia’s economy has outperformed expectations despite these sanctions. It’s almost as if Russia decided to take the script of economic sanctions, use it as toilet paper, and pen its narrative. Instead of wilting under pressure, Russia fortified itself by diversifying its economic alliances and reducing dependence on foreign technology. In layman’s terms, Russia has been playing a long game while Washington seems to have been busy spinning plates and holding its breath.
The United States, under President Trump’s leadership, faces three unappealing options, according to the analyst. It could continue on its current path, providing weapons and watching as the conflict drags on indefinitely. Alternatively, America could withdraw its involvement, which seems counterintuitive, as it could ironically save more Ukrainian lives by hastening the conflict’s end. Or perhaps it’s time to flip the script entirely and let the chips fall where they may, taking a page from Sarah Palin’s book, acknowledging that an emotional response won’t win this chess match.
Ultimately, the real sleight of hand is understanding Putin’s game plan. Misunderstanding him seems to be the Achilles’ heel of the West. It’s time for the National Security community and President Trump’s advisors to rethink how they engage with Russia. Maybe, just maybe, if America understood Putin’s motivations better, the U.S. could prevent playing the patsy and engage in a battle of wits with a bit more wisdom.
