Staff Reports
The Trump campaign has been shaking up the political map by targeting deep-blue states like New York and New Jersey. Former President Donald Trump, eyeing a comeback, alongside potential VP pick Gov. Doug Burgum, held a rally in Wildwood back in mid-May. Shortly after, Trump was found “guilty” in the overblown New York hush money fiasco. More recently, he faced off against the floundering President Joe Biden in a debate that was nothing short of a train wreck for the sitting president—already trailing in the polls. So, what’s cooking in the Garden State?
Back in April, skepticism grew over an Emerson poll placing Biden only seven points ahead of Trump. For a state that hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since ’92, this was big news. Biden won in 2020 by a hefty 16 percentage points, but times are changing. Hold onto your MAGA hats because a new poll shows Trump actually leading in New Jersey.
According to a co/efficient poll, Trump edges out Biden 41-40 percent among likely voters, with 7 percent leaning toward third parties like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Thirteen percent remain undecided—an unprecedented tilt for this historically blue state.
📊 NEW JERSEY GE: @coefficientpoll
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟨 RFK/3rd Party: 7%
⬜ Undecided:13%
—
Senate
🟦 Kim: 39%
🟥 Bashaw: 33%
🟨 Menendez: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 25%H2H Ballot –
🟦 Kim: 41%
🟥 Bashaw: 34%
⬜ Undecided: 25%#237 (1.1/3.0) | June 26-27 | 810 LV… pic.twitter.com/X5CNraZXL4
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 28, 2024
Even more telling, Biden’s approval ratings are tanking. A paltry 36 percent approve of him, while a staggering 56 percent disapprove. Compare that to Trump, who remains more popular with a 45 percent approval rate. Among Republicans, Trump attracts a whopping 82 percent of support, while Biden can barely get 65 percent of his own party to rally behind him.
Economist might find this trend odd, but the numbers don’t lie. Republicans are solidifying their base around Trump, whereas Democrats are struggling to keep Biden’s ship afloat. National and state-level polls alike show a consistent pattern: 88 percent of Republicans approve of Trump, while Biden sees 26 percent of his own party in disapproval. Even a significant chunk of Democrats—20 percent—have favorable views of the Trumpster.
Take a closer look, and it gets even juicier. Among Hispanic voters, Biden’s approval is in the tank at just 30 percent, less than white voters who stand at 35 percent approval. Over half of both Hispanics and white voters disapprove of Biden. Meanwhile, Trump enjoys a 41 percent approval rating among Hispanics. The undecided Hispanic voters (28 percent) are a telling sign of Biden’s waning influence.
Young voters, a traditionally Democratic stronghold, are dealing another blow to Biden. Among the 18-34 demographic, only 23 percent support him, making them his least favorable age group. Shockingly, Trump leads this age group 44-27 percent, showing that the young and restless might just be more MAGA than anyone thought.
The co/efficient poll, conducted right before Biden’s debate disaster, included 810 likely voters and revealed a crucial point: New Jersey’s voter landscape is shifting. While many Democrats might continue to see the state as a solid blue fortress, Republicans are chipping away. This could be one of the most riveting elections of our lifetime, proving that in politics, never say never.
And if this isn’t déjà vu, recall that Democratic Governor Phil Murphy barely squeaked out a win in 2021 against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who conceded only after ten days of nail-biting uncertainty. If the momentum keeps up, Trump might just flip the script on this long-standing blue state.
Activator Scott Pressler nailed it when urging to “keep registering new voters everywhere,” reiterating the point that high turnout helps Trump. Buckle up, folks, 2024 is shaping up to be a wild ride! The message is clear: the tide is turning and no one is safe from the Trump train.
