Staff Reports
As of late October 2024, the electoral landscape has become quite the battleground, and conservative thinkers are looking at how things might shake out in the upcoming election. According to RealClearPolitics, the current polling averages create a rather colorful map with toss-ups and misleading leaners. One must wonder whether pollsters like RCP are just trying to show off by keeping older data hanging around too long. When Texas and Florida are merely marked as leaners, it raises eyebrows about the credibility of some local polling outfits. A recent well-respected poll shows Trump leading Texas by ten points. If that doesn’t scream red-state dominance, what does?
Now, let’s talk about Alaska—yes, that gem of a state that tends to make things unpredictable. This uniquely Alaskan twist comes from their ranked-choice voting system, which could leave Kamala Harris holding the ice regarding winning the state. It’s an uphill climb for the vice president in a state with a particular fondness for third-party antics. That’s right, even the tundra isn’t guaranteed in a race as volatile as this one.
The penultimate Wargaming the Electoral College is up. You'll love it, hate it, or get an ulcer. https://t.co/jifu6PqLsu
— Stephen Green (@VodkaPundit) October 29, 2024
Looking at the bigger picture, there’s chatter about New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia now being considered battleground territory. Some loyal readers of the conservative blogosphere have flagged these states as potential flips, but those thoughts came during a different era—back when Biden was the nominee. With Harris steering the ship now, one can only observe if she can replicate her predecessor’s weak performance in those areas.
The uncertainty doesn’t stop there. Recent polling suggests that if Trump were to pull off a famous vote victory—still a big if, but definitely within the realm of possibility—he could surprise folks in some states that no one is currently eyeing. It seems the electoral dice could be rolling in Trump’s favor as the battleground expands, and every new poll inching upward is something to celebrate in the red state camp.
When examining the data through the lens of Nate Silver’s model, it’s apparent that New Hampshire could turn red first, followed by Virginia and New Mexico. Yet, even in a scenario where Trump loses a few traditionally blue states like Michigan and Wisconsin, a solid grip on Pennsylvania, where he has led in polls, could still secure a victory. Projections indicate that in a best-case scenario, Trump might have an electoral total of around 312 versus Harris’ 226. Still, anything less than a solid win could leave conservatives biting their nails on election night.
As the clock runs down to Election Day, the mounting tension reveals that Harris has an uphill battle. Sure, she might scrape together the numbers to squeak out a win in some districts, but a comprehensive victory? That’s a tall order, particularly given how suburban voters feel about the national conversation. If conservatives read the tea leaves correctly, whatever happens on that fateful night could still favor the loud and proud “Bad Orange Man.” As polls shift and predictions fly, an exhilarating uncertainty keeps everyone on their toes. Buckle up; it’s going to be a wild ride.
