Staff Reports
With just about seven weeks left until the election, the latest polling data is rolling in at a pace that would make even the most seasoned statistician dizzy. The spotlight is unflinchingly fixed on the contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, especially in battleground states that hold the keys to the presidency. Chief among them is Pennsylvania, where the stakes are high with its 19 electoral votes. According to the polls, Harris has her work cut out for her. Her choice of running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, has left many puzzled when a more strategic pick like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro could have better served her campaign.
Wisconsin is another hotbed of contention, with recent surveys indicating that the race there is tighter than a drum. An AARP poll reveals that Harris and Trump are practically locked in a duel, neck and neck in the battleground state. In a face-off, Harris clings to a slim lead of just 49% to Trump’s 48% among likely voters. Within the sprawling field of candidates, her advantage slightly widens to 48% to 45%. Still, it’s clear that Trump is finding his groove, especially among voters over 50, who are pivotal in determining the election’s outcome.
Poll Shows a Close Race in Wisconsin https://t.co/PlhqZQFmAS
— J. Metz (@Metz1245John) September 18, 2024
Polls conducted just after the latest ABC News debate contribute to the narrative that Harris has failed to gain the elusive momentum predicted following the televised sparring. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points among likely participants, it’s anyone’s guess whether Harris will be able to rally support in a state that could easily tip the balance in her favor. Not to be overlooked, Trump’s performance among older voters has turned heads, as he takes the lead 50% to 47% within this critical demographic.
In a comical twist, Harris’ “favorable” rating stands at a frail 48%, equaled by those who view her unfavorably. It’s almost as if voters in Wisconsin don’t know what to think about her. Meanwhile, Trump, despite scoring lower at 46% favorable to 51% unfavorable, has shown signs of improvement. He’s moved up from a decidedly more grim position in July, indicating that the tides may not be as stubbornly against him as some would hope.
As if that weren’t enough, President Biden appears to be floating in even less favorable waters with a 41% to 55% approval rating. In the grand scheme, voters over 50 tend to favor Trump, while very little separates him from Harris among these older voters. Meanwhile, the approval ratings for both Harris and Biden as government officials continue to languish in negative territory. The Trump campaign might want to capitalize on this increasingly evident link between Kamala Harris and the perceived failings of the Biden administration as they gear up for a ruthless autumn campaign.
While Harris may display more significant leads in the likes of Pennsylvania and Michigan, she still walks a tightrope in Wisconsin. The polls show that she is benefiting slightly, with a 51% to 46% advantage in Keystone State. However, in Wisconsin, where the race is too close to call, she only manages a 49% to 48% head-to-head lead. As the political climate becomes more incendiary, observers are keenly aware that even the outcome in Pennsylvania might be delayed, as officials signal they could not announce results on election night. For voters, it seems the only certainty in the coming weeks is the promise of more uncertainty, mostly stemming from the Harris campaign’s struggle against both Trump and the clock.
