Staff Reports
With President Joe Biden officially throwing in the towel on his reelection bid, the stage has been set for Vice President Kamala Harris to take center stage. In a move that was as surprising as a cat at a dog show, Biden endorsed Harris and then promptly vacated the spotlight. Since then, the political landscape has been buzzing, with Harris enjoying a brief honeymoon period that coincides with the ongoing DNC. However, many political observers are beginning to speculate that this momentum may already be changing and not in her favor.
As of the latest polling from RealClearPolitics, Harris has managed to pull ahead of former President Donald Trump by a measly 1.5 points. While any lead is a lead, this one falls squarely within the margin of error, which is like saying you’ve got a “certain” chance of winning the lottery with a ticket you never bought. When Biden was still playing the role of candidate, he often found himself behind Trump, creating a picture of a tightly contested race. Fast forward to now, and Harris’s lead seems feeble, especially considering a Monday forecast that shows her and Trump locked in a tie at a head-scratching 49 percent each.
BREAKING: Donald Trump is officially leading Kamala Harris in odds to win the 2024 presidential election, according to Polymarket.
Kamala Harris has erased a 10 percentage point lead seen just over a week ago. pic.twitter.com/cPZimhbBl5
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 20, 2024
Breaking down the polling map reveals an even grimmer picture for the sitting Vice President. In states where she might hope to hold on to an advantage, recent forecasts indicate that Trump is poised for success in swing states like Pennsylvania and Nevada, where he’s up by 52-48 percent. Meanwhile, Arizona is looking even better at a 55-45 possible victory margin, with Georgia and North Carolina swinging so far toward Trump that even a weather forecast wouldn’t dare suggest otherwise.
Of course, the lingering question is whether or not Harris’s seemingly unprecedented success will last. A possible game-changer could be Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who just might be preparing to exit the Democratic fray and throw his support behind Trump. Recent indicators suggest a 76 percent likelihood that he’ll drop out before the November showdown. This is where the fun starts, as Trump’s campaign seems to be brimming with confidence, buoyed not only by potential new endorsements but also by the notion that Harris may not be the candidate she wants to be.
Harris’s track record as the sitting vice president has brought its challenges. She has been notably quiet on policy proposals, with many of her ideas appearing to be borrowed from more popular sources. Even the mainstream media, which usually rolls out the red carpet for the Democratic candidates, seems hesitant to endorse her ideas fully. The lack of engagement with the press and unwillingness to explain her policies give off a strong whiff of desperation—imagine a contestant on a talent show who simply refuses to perform.
Finally, it’s important to note that while Harris may be relishing in her fleeting lead, the reality is that for every poll suggesting she’s ahead, data from more credible sources indicates a different narrative entirely. With sentiments expressed by polling experts that suggest many of these surveys may lean heavily Democratic, skepticism around Harris’s viability as a candidate is increasing. Yet, with over two months until Election Day, the race is still very much alive. It remains to be seen whether Harris can maintain her footing or whether she will fall back into the shadows, just as Biden did before her.
