Staff Reports
Montana is quickly becoming the state that every political pundit will be obsessively monitoring come November. With the possibility of the 45th President making a triumphant return, it’s hard not to picture him reclaiming Montana with the kind of victory that would make even the most ardent Democrat shed a tear. Donald Trump, who charmed the state in both 2020 and 2016 with margins of victory exceeding 16 and 20 points respectively, is expected to stroll through this election season like a cowboy on Main Street, tipping his hat to all who stand in his path.
Recent polling from Emerson College reveals that Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by a considerable margin of 55 to 40 percent, making Harris’s dreams of winning a Montana voter look like a well-intentioned joke at a family reunion. The poll does suggest there’s a smidge of uncertainty with 5 percent of voters still undecided, but that’s about as likely to change as a cat’s loyalty to its owner when a new box arrives at the doorstep.
#New General Election Poll – Montana
🔴 Trump 55% (+15)
🔵 Harris 40%Senate
🔴 Tim Sheehy 48% (+2)
🔵 Jon Tester 46%Emerson #B – 1000 LV – 8/6
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 8, 2024
MONTANA POLL with @thehill
2024 US Senate Election
Tim Sheehy (R) 48%
Jon Tester (D) 46%
5% undecidedhttps://t.co/PCPb4jqH2M pic.twitter.com/AVOcnXz7gd— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 8, 2024
Meanwhile, in the race for U.S. Senate, Republican nominee Tim Sheehy is flexing his political muscles. In a twist that surely has Democratic strategists sweating through their thermals, Sheehy now leads incumbent Jon Tester by a narrow 48 to 46 percent. Not too long ago, Tester was basking in poll numbers that had him ahead of Sheehy. This flip is like watching a Montana rodeo where the once-strong bull has suddenly become a nervous calf looking for the exit.
Getting into specifics, one might find it amusing that Sheehy, while currently trailing the women’s vote—Tester’s support among that demographic hovers at 53 percent compared to Sheehy’s 41 percent—holds a whopping 16-point lead among men. Nothing says “I’m one of the boys” quite like a healthy disdain for Kamala Harris. In contrast, Tester is trying to sidestep being too cozy with Harris, which is akin to being friends with the kid who always got sent to the principal’s office—you want to keep a safe distance from that kind of reputation.
In true fashion, Trump has been busy calling out Tester as a Democratic rubber-stamp, with a little flair for the dramatics. He’s warned Montanans that Tester isn’t the moderate hero he claims to be and that backing him is akin to planting a garden of poison ivy. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is testing its own darts at Tester, deftly reminding voters that he’s been singing the praises of the Biden administration while trying to dodge the mess they’ve made.
Ultimately, with just a few months left until the big dance, the prospects for Tester are looking as appealing as a flat soda at a barbecue. Sheehy might yet ride Trump’s coattails all the way to Washington, DC, leaving Tester expending whatever energy he has left to distance himself from Harris while his opponent soars on the wings of MAGA enthusiasm. The stage is set, and the drama is only just beginning as conservatives in Montana gear up to reclaim their state.
