Staff Reports
The race for governor in North Carolina is shaping up to be the latest example of Democratic overreach, according to the latest assessment by political prognosticators. Sabato’s Crystal Ball has downgraded the race from a toss-up to a seemingly “leans Democratic” stance, as if the local electorate is eagerly awaiting a Democratic renaissance. The timing couldn’t be more convenient, coming just days after the presidential election results cast a favorable light on the Democrats in the Tar Heel State.
Despite this pessimistic outlook for Republicans, history has shown that North Carolina has a penchant for electing governors that don’t align with the presidential victor. In fact, for the last half-century, while Democrats may have claimed the governorship seven times in the past eight elections, they’re not exactly dominating the presidential scene with only one win since 1972—Barack Obama’s victory in 2008. That should raise eyebrows for anyone who might think that powering down the leftist highway is a sound strategy in a state that’s traditionally more balanced than the pundits would have you believe.
Cook Political Reports says there is a shift in battleground North Carolina towards Vice President Harris.@SteveKornacki breaks down the numbers for us. pic.twitter.com/tr5DYahORG
— MSNBC Reports (@MSNBC_reports) August 28, 2024
Recent shifts in the political winds have seen Crystal Ball also adjusting their presidential race rating from “leans Republican” to any sort of toss-up that ends in Democratic favor. It seems they want to put Vice President Kamala Harris front and center, as if placing an inexperienced figure in charge somehow guarantees a delightful outcome for the Democrats. Perhaps the Crystal Ball has a few too many crystal balls and not enough real-world data to justify such a prediction about political life in North Carolina.
Facing off in this tumultuous gubernatorial race are Democratic contender Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. With all the back-and-forth narrative from analysts suggesting the race is competitive, hope still lingers for Republicans. Trump’s endorsement for Robinson certainly raises the stakes, signaling that while the establishment may lean left, the voters may just have a different playbook in mind. A slight polling advantage for Trump gives room for optimism, even if current surveys show a 14-point lead for Stein.
The financial aspect is another component where Stein currently holds the card. Reports indicate he raked in a jaw-dropping $13.8 million compared to Robinson’s meager $5.1 million. But don’t let those numbers fool anyone; money doesn’t always win elections, especially in a state where Robinson could make history as the first black governor if successful. In contrast, if Stein takes the crown, he would become the state’s first Jewish governor. The fact remains that despite Stein’s cash flow and polling lead, there’s a palpable undercurrent of enthusiasm for Robinson’s message that could shake the establishment’s predictions to their very core.
