Staff Reports
New polling data reveals that former President Trump is leading over Joe Biden in five out of seven battleground states. In Michigan, Biden is only ahead by one point, and in Nevada, they are tied. Trump also generally benefits when more candidates are added to the ballot, according to the latest Bloomberg/MC survey.
Although there are some fluctuations in the polls, Trump’s lead in the swing states has remained steady. Liam Donovan, a veteran GOP operative, warns against putting too much weight on week-to-week or month-by-month fluctuations. He advises looking at the overall trend since February, explaining that the only significant movements are in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Town Hall: Poll: Would Kamala Harris Be Stronger Than Biden Against Trump? https://t.co/XgQvhUJFX9
— Ian Hansen ???? (@IanHansenFeed) May 23, 2024
Despite the murmurs about Democrats potentially replacing Biden on the ticket, the polls also show that Vice President Kamala Harris would not be a strong contender in a direct match-up against Trump. Harris’s performance in hypothetical match-ups against Trump shows her trailing by significant margins in key swing states.
With Biden’s job approval rating already underwater, Harris’ unfavorable numbers are even worse. Given these unfavorable results, it would be risky for the Democratic party to bypass Biden in favor of Harris. The polls suggest that Harris is a worse option for Democrats than Biden, which could pose a significant risk to the party and its primary election votes.
Lastly, the polls also indicate a disconnect between social media and real-life opinions. A Harvard poll shows that Americans view Israel much more favorably than Hamas, and even more favorably than pro-Hamas campus protesters. Additionally, a Siena College poll reveals that the majority of New Yorkers, including Democrats, believe that the campus protests have gone too far and support police intervention. These findings serve as a reminder that social media does not always reflect the broader public sentiment.
