Staff Reports
A recent Suffolk poll of black voters in key swing states brings troubling news for Joe Biden. The results show a decline in support for the current president compared to the 2020 election. In Michigan, Biden only captures 55 percent of the black vote, with Donald Trump gaining 15 percent support. Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West also secure 15 percent each. This shift towards Trump by six points is significant and concerning for Biden’s campaign.
Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Biden faces challenges as support from black voters has decreased. While 76 percent voted for Biden in 2020, the latest poll indicates only mid-50s support for him. The reasons cited for this change include dissatisfaction with Biden’s policies and concerns about his age and mental sharpness. These factors could pose serious obstacles for Biden as he seeks to maintain support among black voters.
Much-Anticipated Poll of Black Voters in Swing States Is Out, and It's Not Good for Joe Biden https://t.co/581sGcbc2J
— Ron Brady (@Romeobravo30) June 17, 2024
Contrary to a Republican talking point about Trump’s criminal convictions resonating with black voters, the poll suggests that policy failures and doubts about Biden’s abilities are the primary drivers for the shift in support. This indicates that focusing on addressing these concerns may be crucial for Biden to regain ground with black voters.
One important factor to consider is the turnout of low-propensity voters. The poll reveals a discrepancy between the actual voter turnout in 2020 and the reported support for Biden. If these new voters do not show up in the upcoming election, the significance of the poll results may diminish. Trump’s challenge will be to mobilize these low-propensity voters to ensure that his lead in the polls translates into actual votes.
Overall, the poll results underscore the need for Biden’s campaign to address policy concerns and perceptions about his ability to lead effectively. With turnout expected to be high in the upcoming election, both candidates must focus on energizing their base and reaching out to undecided voters to secure victory.
