Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is getting a crash course in international diplomacy from none other than Donald Trump, and it’s safe to say this lesson might be costing her country quite a bit. As Trump, the master of the deal, throws down the gauntlet with talk of hefty tariffs, Sheinbaum is feeling the heat in the form of a plummeting peso, which is about as welcome as a mosquito at a picnic.
In a move that has left Sheinbaum scrambling, Trump made it clear that if Mexico and Canada don’t get serious about curbing illegal immigration and the flow of dangerous drugs, including fentanyl, they could be staring down the barrel of a 25 percent tariff. This threat isn’t just hot air; Trump reaffirmed his intentions right as he took office, setting a February 1 deadline for his plans to kick in. As a result, the peso took a nosedive, losing 1.4 percent in one day—music to the ears of conservative Americans who see this as a clear win in holding foreign leaders accountable.
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— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) November 25, 2024
Sheinbaum first shot back with the bravado of someone standing on shaky ground, suggesting that Mexico could impose its own tariffs in retaliation. But here’s the kicker: with an ongoing trade deficit of over $150 billion between the U.S. and Mexico, it’s clear who would end up worse off in this trade tussle. Mexico might find itself in a world of hurt if Trump decides to play hardball, which, let’s face it, is right in his wheelhouse.
After the peso’s steep fall, Sheinbaum attempted damage control by advocating for “cool heads” and referring to existing trade agreements, likely in a futile bid to stave off the impending doom of tariffs. But references to agreements made during Trump’s first term left the door wide open for renegotiation—something the former president has hinted at, especially with regards to automotive imports. If she thought the last few days were tough, she might want to brace for impact as Trump maneuvers through his bargaining tactics.
For conservatives who have watched Trump successfully wield tariffs as a means to an end before, this situation feels all too familiar. Back in 2019, under the threat of similar tariffs, the previous Mexican president deployed thousands of troops to the border in a clear sign that when pressured, Mexico can respond. Trump’s earlier success in getting them to pull troops to mitigate the immigration crisis showed that when it comes to dealing with the Mexican government, sometimes a firm hand is needed.
It seems only a matter of time before she realizes that to keep the peso afloat and her political standing intact, cooperating with Trump might be the safest route. Watching Sheinbaum navigate this high-stakes game will be as entertaining as it is instructive, especially as Trump continues to show exactly why he is considered a master of the art of the deal. If nothing else, the world is getting a front-row seat to how politics and economics dance a cha-cha that can leave one side spinning.