Staff Reports
A recent poll conducted by Emerson College has left Pennsylvania Democrats scratching their heads and fearing for their political futures. While Democratic Senator Bob Casey currently holds a comfortable 8-point lead over his Republican opponent David McCormick, the same poll shows former President Donald Trump leading incumbent Democrat Joe Biden by a 9-point margin. This surprising contradiction has the left wing of the Commonwealth in a state of confusion.
New Pennsylvania Poll Sends Democrats Scrambling; Trump Up BIG In Swing State…..https://t.co/Bq6yf25ow0
— ????Josh Dunlap???? ULTRA-MAGA (@JDunlap1974) October 11, 2023
According to Spencer Kimball, the Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, this contradiction can be attributed to generational differences. Among voters under 40, Biden leads Trump 44% to 39%. However, among voters under 30 in this group, Trump takes the lead with 45% compared to Biden’s 39%. On the other hand, Senator Casey maintains a strong lead over McCormick among voters under 40 (46% to 22%) and voters under 30 (42% to 23%).
PENNSYLVANIA POLL
2024 Hypothetical Presidential General Election
Donald Trump 45%
Joe Biden 36%
Someone else 11%
8% undecidedhttps://t.co/mkkvojSab2 pic.twitter.com/ZykBudrYOn— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 11, 2023
Emerson College shows Pres. Trump leading Joe Biden by NINE PERCENT in the crucial state of Pennsylvania:
Trump: 45%
Biden: 36%This is the second poll to show this result – Quinnipiac showed Trump leading Biden by 2% in the Keystone State earlier this month. pic.twitter.com/GlK7JNv8TN
— Daniel Baldwin (@baldwin_daniel_) October 11, 2023
The poll also found that voters with a high school degree or less tend to lean towards Trump, with 53% supporting him compared to 27% for Casey. However, among this group, Casey still holds a narrow lead over McCormick with 36% to 33%. This indicates a significant portion of Pennsylvania voters who are willing to split their ticket.
Notably, the poll also revealed that half of Trump’s Pennsylvania supporters are unwavering in their support and can think of nothing that he could do in the next several months to lose their support for the 2024 election. This loyalty is a promising sign for Trump’s potential campaign in the future.
The poll was conducted between October 1-4 with a sample size of 430 Pennsylvania voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.7%. Emerson College has been conducting a study on the Midwest region and surrounding states, and Pennsylvania is just one of the many states included in their research. The results from other states will be released over the next few weeks.
The fact that this is not the first poll to show similar results is noteworthy. A previous Quinnipiac poll also showed Trump leading Biden by 2% in Pennsylvania earlier this month. With these consistent findings, it is clear that Pennsylvania is a battleground state in play for the upcoming 2024 election.
It is important for Republicans to recognize the potential for success in Pennsylvania. Former Congressional candidate Sean Parnell and GOP voting activist Scott Pressler both expressed optimism about Republicans’ chances in the state. Parnell noted that the numbers are now more favorable for Republicans than when Trump won the state in 2016. Pressler emphasized the significant voter base in Pennsylvania, including 80,000 Amish, 80,000 truckers, and 930,000 hunters, and the need to get them registered and out to vote.
In the 2020 election, Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania with 50% of the vote, while Trump received 48.8%. Trump had previously won the state in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. However, based on the polling results from Emerson College, it is clear that Pennsylvania is still up for grabs in 2024. Republicans have a real chance to turn the state red once again.
