In a surprising turn of events, the Associated Press has officially declared former President Donald Trump as the winner of the New Hampshire Republican primary. This declaration came after an analysis of initial vote returns and the results of AP VoteCast, a survey conducted among Republican primary voters. Both indicators clearly showed Trump pulling ahead by a margin that was virtually impossible for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley to overcome.
— Roberto Botella (@botella_roberto) January 24, 2024
As of 8 p.m., Trump was already leading by a comfortable margin in over 25 townships. Even in major cities like Manchester and Concord, where significant results were reported early on, Trump maintained an impressive lead. The same results were echoed in more rural areas of the state. It appears that the findings of AP’s survey have been fully confirmed by the actual votes.
Interestingly, Haley only seemed to have an edge in areas known for their Democratic-leaning tendencies, such as Concord, Keene, and Portsmouth. However, despite securing the majority of unaffiliated voters who chose to participate in the Republican primary, Haley’s support could not make up for Trump’s nearly 50-point lead among registered Republicans. It’s worth noting that in New Hampshire, voters who do not align with a political party are allowed to participate in either party’s primary, but those already registered with a party can only vote in their own party’s primary.
It’s evident that AP VoteCast is a highly useful survey that provides a comprehensive snapshot of the electorate. It delves into the minds of voters, revealing what issues they care about, how they feel about the candidates, and why they voted the way they did. With the allocation of New Hampshire’s 22 delegates being proportional among candidates who receive at least 10 percent of the vote statewide, Trump’s victory in the primary further solidifies his standing among Republican contenders.