Staff Reports
The Environmental Protection Agency has just finished what will feel like a gift to biofuel lobbyists and a bill to every American who fills a gas tank. The EPA’s final “Set 2” rule for the Renewable Fuel Standard set new renewable fuel volumes for 2026 and 2027 and reallocated a large share of small‑refinery exemptions. That decision sent RIN credit prices shooting up and will raise the price of gasoline and diesel at the pump—plain and simple.
What the EPA actually did — and why it matters
The final rule locks in higher Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027 and reassigns roughly 70% of previously granted small‑refinery exemptions back into the program. EPA also removed renewable electricity as an eligible pathway. The numbers are not trivial: total applicable renewable fuel volumes are in the mid‑20s billion RINs for those years, and the added reallocation means nearly a billion extra RINs in play for each year. For anyone wondering whether this is technical bureaucracy or real policy, the answer is: it changes the price Americans pay for fuel.
RINs spiked — and drivers will pay
How the credit market translates to higher gas prices
RINs (Renewable Identification Numbers) are the compliance currency for the RFS. The new EPA volumes lifted expected demand for RINs and markets reacted fast: RIN prices roughly doubled, with biomass‑diesel and ethanol RINs trading near multi‑year highs. Independent analysts put a price tag on this: the Energy Policy Research Foundation estimates the RFS is adding about $0.45 per gallon to gasoline under current market prices — a hit that translates into tens of billions of dollars a year for U.S. consumers. That’s not theory; it’s cash out of families’ pockets when they fill the tank.
Who benefits — and who gets stuck with the bill
The EPA and biofuel backers say higher volumes help farmers and rural America. That may be true for some pockets, but it ignores the rest of the economy. Refiners and fuel producers warned this would raise compliance costs and squeeze margins, and small refineries face real stress when RIN prices spike. The White House and EPA under President Donald Trump and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin will tout rural gains, but policy can’t be just a transfer from city consumers to farm belt producers without scrutiny. If the goal is energy security and lower prices, this rule misses the mark.
It’s time for common sense: end the federal mandate that forces biofuel blending through the RFS or at least halt the forced reallocations that pushed RINs higher. If oil companies or refiners want to blend ethanol or biodiesel, fine—let the market decide. But don’t rig the market with mandates that raise pump prices. Expect legal fights and congressional pushback, because this rule will not sit quietly with affected industries and voters. In the meantime, drivers pay the price for Washington’s latest experiment — again.
