Staff Reports
Early voting in Nevada has officially begun, raising the stakes in an election cycle that may very well redefine the political landscape of the Silver State. For a man who once led the nation, former President Donald Trump is reportedly prepared for his strongest bid yet for Nevada’s six electoral votes. The once-sturdy Clark firewall built by Democrats is beginning to show significant cracks, and Republican strategists are eager to exploit this vulnerability.
The voting dynamics in Nevada could not be clearer. Key Democrat strongholds like Washoe and Clark Counties will play pivotal roles in determining the outcome of the election. To secure a victory, Democrats need to generate a commanding early voting lead in these areas, especially given the Republican turnout advantages seen in the rural regions, commonly referred to as “the rurals.” In fact, as the early voting continues, all eyes will be glued to how well the Democrats can sustain their lead against a resurgent GOP that is eager to dismantle that proverbial wall.
On the first day of NV early voting in 2020, Rs outvoted Ds by <1K. Ds outvoted Rs in Clark by almost 2K.
In 2024, Rs outvoted Ds by more than 10K(!). Rs outvoted Ds in Clark by more than 5K. Huge swing for Rs.
All the caveats about needing to wait on Clark mail still apply. https://t.co/no2ezkQbog pic.twitter.com/EFHfaAyVOX
— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) October 20, 2024
In the most recent election cycle, Democrats established a commanding early voting lead in Clark County, boasting over a 32,000-vote edge by the end of the first day. Flash forward to now, and that advantage has dwindled to a mere 7,000 votes after the same timeframe, a stark contrast to the 90,000-vote lead they enjoyed in 2020. This shift raises legitimate concerns about the Democratic Party’s ability to rally support, especially with Republican enthusiasm seemingly on the rise.
Adding to the tensions is a technical snafu that has plagued the early voting process in Clark County. Early reports misidentified all voters as “non-partisan,” a blunder that could shake voter confidence and potentially skew turnout. The Nevada Secretary of State’s corrective measures might help clarify matters, but lingering confusion can dissuade voters from making their way to the polls. Voter uncertainty has a way of keeping folks at home, which is exactly the kind of outcome that Republican strategists are hoping for.
Although mail-in voting remains a popular method for Nevadans—thanks to universal mail ballots introduced in 2020—the Democrats still dominate this arena. However, early voting figures alone do not tell the whole story, as many Republicans may also turn out in droves come Election Day. Polling data indicates a much more competitive landscape in Nevada compared to 2020, when President Biden won by a narrow margin. If Republicans can successfully harness their momentum heading into Election Day, they might just flip the script and seize victory in a race that everyone is watching closely.
As early voting continues through November 1, the potential for a GOP resurgence in Nevada feels more tangible than ever. If the Republican base can lean into their enthusiasm, the door may well be open for one of the most surprising outcomes this election cycle—and wouldn’t that be a plot twist worth celebrating?
