Staff Reports
A fresh poll containing concerning updates for President Joe Biden. The poll showed that former President Donald Trump is leading Biden by +6 and has other signs that aren't good for Biden. This poll became public immediately following the White House Correspondents' Dinner making the timing important. The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll showed Trump with a +4 lead over Biden. When these polls are combined, Trump has a lead of +1.3 over Biden, according to RealClearPolling. This lead has been growing, and despite Trump maintaining greater overall popularity than Biden, it has continued to expand.
Trump garners more backing from Republicans (91 percent) compared to Biden's support among Democrats (87 percent). Additionally, he holds an advantage among Independents/Others, with 53 percent indicating they would choose Trump over Biden.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1784986880645230830
In a prior poll, it was suggested that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. entering the race would have a greater negative impact on Trump than on Biden. However, in this current poll, Trump maintains a lead of +4 over Biden, with 45 percent support compared to Biden's 41 percent. Even with the presence of third-party candidates such as Jill Stein and Cornel West, Trump's lead extends to +6 over Biden among both first-choice voters and those leaning towards a candidate.
The survey also delved into voters' opinions regarding the numerous allegations against Trump. Even in the scenario where Trump were to face conviction prior to the election, the competition between Trump and Biden would still remain neck and neck. By 10 points, voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president. A plurality, 37 percent, strongly agree, while 33 percent disapprove. Trump's favorable rating stands at 50 percent, resulting in a net of +4. In contrast, Biden's net is -7, with 51 percent holding an unfavorable view of him.
?? 2024 GE: "If Trump is convicted of crimes related to his handling of classified presidential documents"
? Biden 50%
? Trump 50%
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"If Trump is convicted for RICO in trying to influence the 2020 election results in Georgia"? Biden 50%
? Trump 50%
—
"If Trump is… https://t.co/Voxor8cGwF pic.twitter.com/njIj6YNHCW— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 29, 2024
Biden also faces negative developments in how people perceive the management of his presidency, the national mood, and the durability of the Democratic Party's narratives. Only 34 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, while 58 percentThose numbers are about the same regarding the economy, as 35 percent say it's on the right track, while 58 percent say it's on the wrong track. Furthermore, 48 percent of those surveyed indicate their economic situation is declining, while 29 percent report it's improving.
Biden's strongest point lies in the approval of his response to the coronavirus by 52 percent of respondents. Conversely, his challenges are most pronounced in issues such as immigration management and rising prices/inflation, which are primary concerns among voters.
A majority of voters persist in expressing concern about Biden's age and fitness, with 64 percent additionally noting that his public lapses occur more frequently.
NEW POLL: Nearly two-thirds of Americans say Biden's "public lapses are getting more frequent these days" ? pic.twitter.com/7M15bzr6K1
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 29, 2024
Though a narrow majority (55 percent) asserts that Trump has committed crimes warranting conviction and poses a threat to democracy if re-elected (52 percent), a larger majority (57 percent) contends that Democrats are employing biased tactics within the legal system to target a political adversary.
The Harvard-Harris poll, conducted from April 24 to April 26, surveyed 1,961 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
