Staff Reports
Hold onto your hats, folks. It’s looking like President Joe Biden is in for a rough ride heading into Thursday night’s debate. Fresh out of the gate, two new national polls have former President Donald Trump leading Biden. Yes, you read that correctly. Quinnipiac University’s poll has Trump ahead by four points, sitting comfortably at 49% to Biden’s 45%. Meanwhile, a New York Times-Siena College survey gives Trump 48% to Biden’s 44% among likely voters. Seems like the Democrats’ golden boy isn’t quite as shiny as he used to be.
The story gets juicier. Trump’s lead climbs to a staggering six points among registered voters and grows even more among independents, where Trump boasts a seven-point advantage. This is a twist! It appears Trump is poised to secure a larger share of the popular vote than he did in the previous two elections. If Trump holds his lead through November, he’ll be the first non-Bush Republican since Reagan to pull off such a feat. Ronald Reagan remains the benchmark for Republican landslides, winning 18 points in 1984. It looks like Trump might be inching closer to that legacy.
For Biden, the debate stakes couldn’t be higher https://t.co/TNWAqyBLxY via @dcexaminer
— Sorgatoni (@Sorghaghtani) June 27, 2024
However, let’s not forget the Electoral College, the ultimate decider of who gets the keys to the White House. Trump is up by more than three points in RealClearPolitics’ battleground state averages. In Wisconsin, a Marquette University Law School poll shows things are tight, with Biden up by two points in a head-to-head showdown, but Trump gains the upper hand once third-party candidates are thrown into the mix. The tides seem to be turning against Biden, who recently enjoyed a slight edge in a Fox News poll.
Nate Silver, the political soothsayer, suggested that Biden is in serious jeopardy if the Electoral College/poll gap shapes up anything like 2016 or 2020. National polls showing a tied race aren’t the be-all and end-all; instead, they highlight Trump’s significant advantage in the Electoral College. Can Biden fill the enormous shoes of Barack Obama? The comparison might sting for Biden fans. Back in 2012, Obama consistently led in swing states even when national polls were close, handing Mitt Romney a sound defeat. Biden, on the other hand, seems to be losing ground in states that should be strongholds.
The irony is rich, as Trump seems to be threatening Biden in traditionally blue states like Virginia and Minnesota. Remember, Minnesota hasn’t voted Republican at the presidential level since Nixon took 49 states in 1972. Meanwhile, Silver’s model gives Trump a solid 66% chance of winning in the latest forecast.
While Thursday night’s debate serves as a potential game-changer, Biden has plenty at stake. At 81, every gaffe, every stutter gets amplified, especially when facing a proven debater like Trump. Democrats are undoubtedly sweating bullets; some even whisper about swapping Biden out at the Democratic National Convention. The party’s Senate candidates are holding steady, which only underscores the Biden problem. Bad strategies, bad optics – it’s all on him.
Should Biden fail to muster the performance of a lifetime, doubts will surge. Sure, he managed to placate critics with a strong State of the Union performance, sparking Republican skepticism over his suspiciously well-timed energy. But this time, the stakes are higher. With Biden off the grid, presumably cramming for the big night, he’d better hope for a Reagan-esque comeback performance. Otherwise, the Dems will be wishing they could drag Reagan himself out of retirement. The clock is ticking, Joe.
