Joe Biden’s administration might want to brace itself, as it appears the much-ballyhooed “Obama coalition” has officially flatlined. This coalition, once thought to be a political dynamo, is now not only non-transferable but seemingly nonexistent. Hillary Clinton discovered this harsh reality in 2016 when her attempts to capture the magic of Obama’s diverse leadership fell flat. Any hope that Biden could resurrect that coalition appears to be wishful thinking at best—especially with less than 50 days until the next election.
In the latest twist of political fate, unions that Biden has long claimed as his allies have begun to withdraw their support, much to Vice President Kamala Harris’s dismay. The International Association of Fire Fighters, representing over 300,000 heroes who run toward danger while most are running away, has confirmed it won’t be endorsing any candidate this election cycle. Just two weeks prior, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters also opted out of making endorsements. These developments are akin to a body blow delivered right to the heart of the Biden campaign, which has banked heavily on union backing to sway working-class voters in critical states.
A closer look reveals a stark picture for Harris and her campaign. The IAFF’s decision not to endorse was by a narrow margin, but the timing could not be worse. With early voting already kicking off, this union’s refusal to pick sides echoes a broader sentiment among working-class voters, who appear to be wavering in their support of the Democrats. The union’s president suggested that this move was meant to maintain unity within the group, but dismissing a candidate who was once a front-runner only showcases how far the Biden administration has fallen from grace.
Beyond the IAFF, the Teamsters’ decision against endorsements also raises eyebrows; it’s particularly striking considering that nearly 60% of their membership reportedly supports Trump. Instead of capitalizing on their traditional base, these unions seem to be stepping away from the very candidates they once backed, a sign that they may be recognizing the Democratic Party’s misalignment with their members’ values. This trend is a wake-up call that Democrats can no longer assume labor support is a given.
Firefighters Union Deals a Major Blow to Kamala
So freakin glad to hear it!!!! https://t.co/X5UhhFoiU1
— 🦅🗡️𝙆𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙚 𝙁𝙤𝙧 𝙏𝙧𝙪𝙢𝙥🗡️🦅 (@D_Trump24) October 4, 2024
Harris’s campaign is now in a precarious position. With organized labor being a supposed cornerstone of her outreach strategy, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the lack of endorsements could haunt her like a ghost in a haunted house. According to recent polling, Trump is poised to outperform any Republican presidential candidate among union voters in nearly four decades—a statistic that outright terrifies those in the Biden camp. Projections indicate that Harris could struggle with union voter support worse than any Democrat in a generation.
The appeal of Trump among working-class voters is striking. Not only is he seeing favorable numbers with those who have trade school backgrounds, but he’s also gaining unexpected ground with nonwhite, non-college voters. The paradigm is shifting, and as political allegiances continue to realign, it seems the Democratic establishment may need to rethink its approach before pulling another rabbit out of the hat. The labor unions’ retreat from backing the Democratic candidates could soon be seen as a pivotal turning point in a battle that increasingly looks to be one-sided.