Biden Takes Fragile Poll Lead Over Trump But Trump Dominates Swing States

President Joe Biden seems to have taken a slight lead—albeit a very fragile one—over Donald Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average for the first time in 2024. This so-called edge comes primarily courtesy of a Fox News poll showing Biden inching ahead by a mere two percentage points. Ironically, the same Democrats who once scoffed at Fox News results when they favored Trump are now clinging to this slim margin like a life raft in a political storm.

Of course, this tiny uptick doesn’t hold much water when considering the overall polling landscape. RealClearPolitics’ average still has Trump in the lead, albeit by the smallest of margins. The left may be overreacting to a blip on the radar, but let’s not forget that this race is shaping up to be a nail-biter. Trump’s narrow popular vote loss in 2020 came down to a razor-thin margin in key swing states, and his 2016 victory showed that he can clinch the presidency while losing the popular vote.

Shifting the focus to the battleground states paints a different picture altogether. New swing state polls indicate that Trump has the upper hand. He’s leading in critical states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Heck, he’s even tied in Minnesota. Trump’s internal polling backs these promising numbers, while other polls still give Biden a modest edge, creating a polling patchwork that anyone would love to sew into a winning quilt.

In Texas, Trump and Ted Cruz look solid. Cruz’s challenger Colin Allred is attempting to play both sides of the aisle, but his past comments undermine his current stance on border issues. Typical Democrat flip-flopping, trying to pose as an independent thinker while toeing the party line when it counts. Democrat candidates claiming to be bipartisan is as believable as Bigfoot sightings in Central Park.

Even in deep blue New York, there’s a noticeable erosion in Biden’s support. Trump’s backing among black and Latino voters in New York has significantly increased since 2020, according to recent Siena polling. More bad news for Biden as his wavering stance on the Israel-Hamas war has only tightened the race among Jewish voters. Trump’s gains here are nothing short of impressive, leaving Democrats clutching their pearls.

Next week’s debate will be crucial as both camps gear up for the next phase. With Trump leading by two points in AARP’s poll of the most competitive House districts and the generic Congressional ballot deadlocked, every move will be scrutinized. Buckle up, folks; this election is just getting started.

Written by Staff Reports

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