Staff Reports
Kari Lake is giving Arizona Democrats a wake-up call in the nail-biting race against Rep. Ruben Gallego. In the final stretch, a recent survey from the top-rated pollster AtlasIntel found Lake inching ahead of her opponent. Although the two candidates were tied in an earlier survey, the most recent numbers have Lake leading with a slight edge of 48.6 percent to Gallego’s 47.9 percent. The race is tighter than a pair of skinny jeans at Thanksgiving, and it’s clear that the finish line is approaching rapidly.
Despite Lake’s narrow victory in the latest tally, it’s important to remember that she’s not exactly coasting to victory. Having lost to then-Secretary of State Katie Hobbs in the 2022 gubernatorial race, Lake knows a thing or two about running uphill in a steep political landscape. Meanwhile, Gallego has been sitting pretty with a comfy lead for most of this election cycle. In fact, previous polling from RealClearPolitics shows Gallego ahead by nearly four points, which might have some in the Democrat camp feeling like they can kick back and relax— until they pull out their calculators and remember that just about anything can happen in politics.
NEW: Kari Lake Gets Encouraging News With Days Till Electionhttps://t.co/9vEmUjtCop
— JOSH DUNLAP (@JDunlap1974) October 31, 2024
There’s some amusing irony to be found here. While Gallego has been flaunting his so-called ‘lead’ with the confidence of a cat walking on a fence, the latest numbers show he should probably keep an eye on the rearview mirror. Even a CNN poll at one point had him leading by a staggering eight points, causing some Democrats to pat themselves on the back for a job well done. But with AtlasIntel throwing some cold water on the party atmosphere, it seems Gallego’s campaign is flailing at the hands of an energized Republican base.
In a surprising twist that could put a little pep in Republican step, AtlasIntel’s findings also reveal positive momentum for former President Trump in Arizona. With a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris that’s bigger than most Arizona margaritas at happy hour—trailing Trump by just 4.2 percentage points—it appears the former president holds a solid grip on the Grand Canyon State. In fact, he’s showing surprisingly strong support among undecided voters, as the independents seem to be feeling a bit more red than usual.
Young voters are also singing a different tune this time, with 40.3 percent of those aged 18 to 29 showing support for Trump. It’s a substantial improvement compared to his 2020 figures, as millennials and Gen Zers join the ranks of sensible voters. It seems as though even women are warming up to the former president, with Trump snagging 50.9 percent among female voters compared to Harris’ 47.2 percent. This creates a refreshing contrast to the prevailing narratives surrounding women and voting, putting the Democrats in a position where they might need to rethink their strategies and messaging.
In summary, the latest political battleground suggests that the tide might be turning in Arizona. With a tight race between Lake and Gallego and Trump gaining ground, it’s safe to say that the Democrats might want to prepare their “emergency” strategies before the ballots are finally counted. After all, it’s the final sprint in a race that could very well tip the scales toward the red side. The stakes are high, and the drama is thicker than a bowl of chili. Buckle up, Arizona!
