Staff Reports
The latest JMC Analytics and Polling toplines are a welcome shot of reality for Republicans in Georgia: Representative Mike Collins leads Derek Dooley by roughly 14 points in the GOP U.S. Senate runoff, according to a survey of 600 Republican voters fielded May 26–27. If you like momentum, name recognition, and voters who actually show up, Collins looks like the candidate with all three right now.
What the JMC poll actually shows
Topline numbers and leaners
JMC’s forced-choice question put Collins at about 50% and Dooley at 36%, with roughly 15% undecided. When pollsters pushed the undecideds for a lean, Collins won more of them — 39% to Dooley’s 27% — while about a third stayed truly undecided. On a forced-ballot read Collins still led, and he also enjoys higher favorability: 61% favorable for Representative Mike Collins versus 50% for Derek Dooley. The sample was 600 likely GOP voters, so this is a meaningful snapshot of the June runoff electorate.
Why this matters for the Georgia Senate runoff
Undecideds, turnout, and endorsements
Runoffs live or die on turnout and undecided voters. JMC’s lean follow-up shows Collins winning a larger share of the undecided pool — exactly the kind of edge you need in a short runoff window. Add a strong ground game and a favorable forced-ballot showing, and Collins looks positioned to carry the GOP into November against Senator Jon Ossoff. A Trump endorsement could widen the gap even further; his favorability in the poll is sky-high among this sample, so his signal would move needles here.
Don’t get complacent — the governor race is a cautionary tale
Tighter margins and stubborn undecideds
The same JMC toplines show the governor GOP runoff between Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones and Rick Jackson essentially tied: 39% to 40% with 21% undecided. That closeness is a reminder that runoffs are unpredictable. Different pockets of Republican voters are behaving differently, and a candidate’s lead in one race doesn’t guarantee comfortable margins across the ticket. If Republicans expect uniform results, they’ll get surprised — and complaints won’t fix lost votes.
Bottom line: the JMC poll gives Representative Mike Collins a clearer path in the Georgia GOP Senate runoff, but this is still a sprint, not a marathon. Collins has momentum, favorability, and better undecided lean numbers — all good signs. Still, runoffs hinge on turnout and last-minute moves. Republicans should treat this lead like a head start in a relay: keep running, don’t hand the baton to complacency, and make sure every vote actually gets to the ballot box. If they do, the Senate map looks friendlier; if not, well, that’s what surprises are for — and not the good kind.
