Staff Reports
The headline this week was dramatic: President Donald Trump announced a U.S.‑Iran framework that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The real story, though, came from shipping bosses and safety experts who told reporters they are not packing their bags just yet. Jotaro Tamura, CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines, said it will likely take “at least a couple of weeks, or if not a month” before traffic through the Strait returns to normal. Translation: a political handshake does not clear mines, rewrite insurance contracts, or calm captains’ nerves.
Industry Says “Not So Fast”
Tamura’s warning matters because his company runs more tankers than most — over 200 oil, petroleum, and chemical ships. He and other industry voices like BIMCO and the International Maritime Organization are clear: governments must turn words into safe routes, mine‑clearance plans, and insurance fixes. About 500 ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf. Before the crisis, about 135 ships a day transited Hormuz. Getting back to that pace won’t happen overnight.
Why it will take weeks — not minutes
The practical problems are simple and stubborn. First, mines and unexploded hazards must be found and neutralized. That takes time and careful mine‑hunting. Second, underwriters pulled or repriced war‑risk cover months ago; owners can’t sail without acceptable insurance. Third, ports and shipowners need clear notices on timings, safe lanes, and naval escorts. Finally, ships and crews that sat idle for months need technical checks, paperwork, and rest. Even optimistic analysts predict a phased recovery over weeks to months, not a political photo op that instantly restarts global oil flows.
Trump’s Deal Was Necessary — Now Act Like It
Let’s be blunt: President Donald Trump did the right thing by clinching a deal that can stop random attacks and reopen a key sea lane. But talk is cheap. If the Administration expects cargo ships to immediately trust the waterway again, it should back that up with action. That means fast, visible mine clearance, clear Notices to Mariners from the IMO and national navies, and targeted government backstops for insurance where private markets balk. If Washington wants to turn headlines into energy security, it must move from podiums to plans.
Bottom line: the political breakthrough opened the door, but industry and insurers are the doormen. Expect a cautious, step‑by‑step return of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Watch for IMO safe‑route bulletins, P&I club statements, and rising ship‑tracking numbers. If leaders want normal trade sooner, they should stop celebrating and start solving the messy, practical work that gets tankers safely home.
