Staff Reports
Early indications are favorable for former President Donald Trump's prospective candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. Following a resounding triumph in the Iowa caucuses, where he collected 51% of the vote, Trump is presently positioned to secure an additional victory in New Hampshire. Based on the most recent polling data, Trump currently holds a commanding 13.5 percent advantage. However, when exclusively polls conducted subsequent to the withdrawals of Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy are incorporated, his lead expands to 15.5 percent. Nikki Haley, his former United Nations ambassador, is storming into second place, besieging Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Trump's VP Shortlist: Watch These Three Names Closely? https://t.co/Gy1mdhM4lp
— kevin waterbury (@WaterburyKevin) January 19, 2024
As Trump has solidified his position as the frontrunner, attention has begun to turn towards the selection of his running colleague. Axios identifies Nikki Haley, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, and New York Representative Elise Stefanik as the three most probable candidates. Stefanik, the first incumbent member of Congress to support Trump for 2024, is regarded by some Trump loyalists, including former chief strategist Steve Bannon, as the leading candidate.
Nevertheless, concerns continue to surround the vulnerabilities of Trump in the general election, specifically when he is arrayed against the incumbent president, Joe Biden. At present, the average of polls indicates that Trump sustains a 1.6-point lead. This prompts inquiry into the extent to which Stefanik could contribute to narrowing that divide. Although her endorsement may mitigate the more negative sentiments of female voters toward Trump, it is improbable that her candidacy in the traditionally Democratic state of New York would have a substantial impact.
In contrast, J.D. Vance may be a more favorable option due to the fact that his native state of Ohio contributes 18 electoral votes. The state has consistently cast more votes for the Republican ticket than the Democratic ticket since 1976. As demonstrated by his 2022 victory over Democratic opponent Tim Ryan, Vance's prominence in Ohio could potentially assist Trump in regaining control of the state.
Furthermore, Nikki Haley, while potentially appealing to a broader spectrum of voters, runs the risk of estranging Trump's MAGA constituency. Tucker Carlson has vehemently opposed Haley's candidacy for the position of running mate, and her inclusion on the ballot might dissuade certain MAGA voters from actively endorsing Trump. Nevertheless, the exact ramifications of her selection remain ambiguous.
Although Stefanik, Vance, and Haley are presently regarded as the most probable candidates, Sarah Huckabee, Marsha Blackburn, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, and Kari Lake have also been suggested. Trump retains the ultimate authority to determine the presidential ticket members for the 2024 election.
