Staff Reports
Former President Donald Trump continues to hold a significant lead over President Joe Biden among independents in the deep blue state of New York, according to the latest Siena College survey. The numbers paint a less-than-rosy picture for Biden, with only 42 percent of respondents showing favor towards him, while a majority of 53 percent view him unfavorably, resulting in a negative favorable rating of -11 percent. This marks a notable decline from May when Biden’s net unfavorable rating stood at -5 percent, illustrating a six percentage point increase in disapproval over the past month.
Meanwhile, Trump’s favorability rating in the state has also dipped slightly, standing at 37-59%, down from 39-56% in May. Despite trailing Biden in a head-to-head matchup, with Biden securing 47 percent compared to Trump’s 39 percent, the substantial support Trump enjoys among independents is striking. Trump commands a double-digit lead over Biden among independents, with 45 percent backing him compared to Biden’s 28 percent, marking a significant +17-point advantage for the former president among this crucial demographic.
2024 New York GE:
Biden 47% (+8)
Trump 39%.@SienaResearch, 805 RV, 6/12-17https://t.co/pfrpMZ3Klp
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 20, 2024
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg highlighted the stark contrast in support between party lines, noting that while Biden maintains strong backing from Democrats, Trump enjoys the support of 85% of Republicans and a solid lead of 45-28 percent among independents. The survey also unveiled key gender and racial divisions, with men favoring Trump at 46-42% while women lean towards Biden at 51-33%. White voters are evenly split, and despite Biden’s substantial lead among non-white voters, Trump secures the support of 29 percent of Black and 26 percent of Latino voters.
Conducted from June 12-17, 2024, among 805 registered voters in New York State, the survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent. The data follows Trump’s highly attended rally in nearby New Jersey, which drew over 100,000 attendees, and a subsequent historic rally in the Bronx where chants of “We love Trump!” and “Four more years!” echoed through the crowd, underscoring the enduring enthusiasm for the former president. Democrats may want to take heed of these strong showings as the political landscape continues to shift.
