Staff Reports
Former President Donald Trump is once again showing commanding strength in the critical battleground states, according to the latest from AtlasIntel, the pollster that accurately navigated the 2020 election scene like a seasoned sailor in a stormy sea. Released on a Thursday for added dramatic flair, this poll finds Trump striding ahead in virtually every swing state, illuminating a path to victory that has even the most stoic Democrats scratching their heads.
However, the poll results from North Carolina are generating some eyebrow raises, as they reveal an almost baffling scenario where Vice President Kamala Harris emerges with a slim victory. This comes despite hearty early voting numbers suggesting a Republican wave. Analysts ponder whether maybe, just maybe, there are more Republicans and Independents slipping into Harris’s corner than anyone expected, or if Democratic enthusiasm has finally turned into a ghost town, leaving Harris to squeak by on borrowed time.
📊ATLAS POLLS – SWING STATES
Harris leads in only one of the 7 decisive swing states for the Electoral College outcome: Wisconsin. Trump's advantage over his opponent is most significant in states such as AZ, NV and NC. The race is tight in the Rust Belt swing states. pic.twitter.com/H0AqUuraoL
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 31, 2024
AtlasIntel’s CEO Andrei Roman finds himself befuddled by these North Carolina numbers. His team is set to release a fresh batch of data soon, which suggests an impending dive deeper into electoral mysteries. Speculation runs wild as to whether Harris’s slight lead is an anomaly or a sign of a more complex voter landscape that could upend expectations. Either way, it’s clear that the numbers aren’t telling a straightforward story.
Looking at the rest of the battlegrounds reveals a much more favorable picture for the Republican nominee. In Arizona, Trump boasts a lead of 4.2 percentage points, while in Nevada, he enjoys a 3.6 point advantage. Even Georgia is leaning slightly towards Trump with a 2.3 point edge. In the Rust Belt, Trump has most voters choosing him over Harris, yet the numbers are razor-thin—closing in at 49.3% to 48.7% in Michigan. Pennsylvania, though, shows a comforting trend for Republicans with Trump up by 1.5 points, solidifying key regional advantages.
The findings paint a picture where Trump would comfortably secure the Electoral College with 287 votes to Harris’s 226—assuming current trends hold. Yet, for Harris to salvage any semblance of a chance, she needs to find a way to flip that lead in Pennsylvania. The long and treacherous road ahead for the Vice President has become increasingly rocky and uncertain.
In a world where polls are often treated like a game of political roulette, AtlasIntel stands out as the lone soldier in the arena releasing numbers on a Thursday. Their findings have nudged Trump into a narrow lead in the national average, bringing it to a tight 0.5 percentage points. This implies that while the media may spin a different narrative, real voters seem poised to cast their ballots for Trump—making the upcoming election a thrilling rollercoaster that promises plenty of twists and turns.
