Staff Reports
In the latest batch of polling news, it’s evident that the Republican primary race is coming to an end, and the American people are looking forward to the general election. Polls might seem early, but they’re becoming more and more relevant as the days go on. The big question is, how will things change over the next nine months? The Democrats are gearing up to throw over a billion dollars at Donald Trump, with the biased media relentlessly attacking him every single day. There’s also the looming possibility of Trump being convicted of one or more felonies before the election kicks off. Plus, don’t forget about the impact of the improving economy and consumer sentiment on the incumbent’s chances. It’s a wild ride, folks!
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A vocal anti-Trump Republican turned Democrat, Bill Kristol, seems to be fretting over the recent average poll numbers, which put Trump ahead by about 2%. But hold your horses, Kristol! These polls are hardly a crystal ball to predict the future. But wait, in a surprising twist, the polls in 2016 and 2020 actually underestimated Trump’s support. Could it happen again? The Real Clear Politics average currently has Trump leading Biden by just over two points, and toss some third-party candidates into the mix, and Trump’s lead swells to nearly five points. Biden’s numbers are being lifted by one outlier poll showing him ahead by six points, but don’t count Trump out just yet. He’s leading in nine out of the 12 most recent polls, with one tie and one poll even putting Biden ahead by just a single point.
Now, let’s talk numbers. A recent NBC News poll has Trump ahead by a solid five points among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 general-election matchup, with Trump nabbing 47% and Biden trailing at 42%. Phew, that’s quite the gap! The poll also reveals that Trump is beating Biden by a whopping 22 points on the economy and 35 points on immigration. Yikes! The only glimmer of hope for Biden is if Trump gets convicted of a felony, where Biden squeaks ahead by just two points. But even in that scenario, Trump is still within striking distance. What’s even more astounding is that if the election were to include third-party candidates, Trump’s lead over Biden grows to a solid six points. That’s a major boost for Team Trump.
In the battleground of demographics, it’s true that the Hispanic vote seems to be up for grabs, and even younger voters are split between Trump and Biden. But don’t celebrate too soon, Biden, because if those younger voters don’t rally behind the Democrats, that could spell disaster for his re-election hopes. Trump’s lead also widens when other party candidates are thrown into the mix, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley even leads Biden by a whopping nine points in a hypothetical matchup. Haley is showing that she’s no pushover in the polls!
When it comes to public perception, things are looking pretty grim for Biden. A mere 23% of the people polled believe that Biden has the necessary physical and mental strength to be President. Ouch! That’s a tough pill to swallow. And when it comes to competency and effectiveness, Trump is blowing Biden out of the water, with a 16-point lead in comparison to Biden’s measly 9-point advantage back in 2020. Will Biden be able to turn the tide on these dismal numbers? It’s highly doubtful.
Overall, Biden is facing an uphill battle, with his approval rating hitting rock bottom in the latest NBC News poll. The folks aren’t convinced that Biden has what it takes to lead the country, and his numbers on the economy and immigration are lagging far behind Trump’s. With the economy continuing to be a major issue and voter frustration on the rise, it’s becoming clearer and clearer that Biden may have an uphill battle ahead of him. The American people are making their voices heard, and it seems like they’re not too thrilled with what they’re seeing from the Biden administration. Will Biden be able to turn the tide, or will Trump come out on top once again? Only time will tell.
