Staff Reports
The new 40dB poll is a political earthquake. Roughly nine out of ten Spaniards now point the finger at Morocco for the mass entries into Ceuta, and large majorities want tighter borders and faster deportations. That public anger lands like a thunderbolt on Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who is still saying there is no “solid proof” of Moroccan planning even as a police report and a judicial probe move the story from talk radio to the courtroom.
What the poll actually shows
The survey, conducted by 40dB for El País and Cadena SER with 2,000 interviews and a ±2.2 point margin of error, is blunt. About 89–90 percent of respondents say Morocco bears “a lot” or “quite a bit” of responsibility for the Ceuta episode. At the same time, roughly 72 percent also blame Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government for how it handled the crisis. Voters don’t just point fingers — they want action. Seventy percent favor tightening border controls even if that means some vulnerable people are prevented from entering, and about 82 percent back more fences, surveillance and speeding up deportations. That’s a big swing toward hard-line migration policies.
Why the timing matters
The poll was fielded between August 31 and September 2 — just before the police document alleging Moroccan “active guidance” was made public and as the Audiencia Nacional opened judicial steps. In other words, Spaniards were already furious before a National Police report described the entries as “planned” and implicated people linked to Moroccan security services. That means public opinion could harden even more now that a formal investigation is underway. Meanwhile, Sánchez’s insistence on waiting for “solid proof” looks less like prudence and more like hedging while the political temperature rises.
Political fallout: voters, parties and the border debate
The poll hands a clear short-term advantage to parties that promise tougher migration controls. VOX scores as the most trusted on migration in the survey, ahead of the ruling Socialists and the center-right People’s Party. Sixty-three percent rate Sánchez’s handling of the crisis as bad or very bad. That’s not a gentle nudge from voters — it’s a full stop. If the government doesn’t translate public demand for firmer borders into visible action, expect Madrid to feel pressure not only at home but in diplomatic relations with Rabat.
What should happen next
Spain needs a clear, accountable plan: publish the intelligence that can be published, cooperate fully with the Audiencia Nacional’s probe, and secure the borders while honoring real asylum obligations. That is not mutually exclusive. The Spanish people are asking for sovereignty and security. They deserve answers, not evasions. If Madrid wants to rebuild trust it must stop sounding like a policymaker making excuses and start acting like a government defending its borders and citizens — with facts, with force when necessary, and with an honest explanation to voters.
