Staff Reports
The American Accountability Foundation dropped a short but powerful memo this week that should make school boards and taxpayers sit up. The July 23 memorandum — sent to the Republican Governors Association and summarized in a conservative outlet — says English‑learner enrollment in Florida and Texas fell in the 2025–26 school year. AAF then turned that drop into dollars and claims those declines are linked to President Trump’s immigration‑enforcement policies, estimating $835 million to $890 million less in education funding across the two states in a single year.
What the AAF memo found
The memo, signed by AAF President Thomas Jones, used state categories for English learners — Florida’s LY (ELL) counts and Texas’ “Emergent Bilingual” totals — and basic per‑student funding math. In Florida, AAF reports ELL enrollment fell by about 23,641 students, which it values at roughly $215 million to $235 million using the state funding formulas and a Base Student Allocation. In Texas, the Emergent Bilingual population fell by about 54,749 students; AAF applies a combined state and local per‑student figure and estimates $620 million to $655 million in reduced funding there.
How the math works
AAF didn’t use just the language premium. It multiplied total per‑student funding averages — roughly $9,123 for Florida and about $11,950 for Texas in their calculations — by the enrollment declines. That’s how the group arrives at a combined $835 million–$890 million. The memo’s headline point: fewer English learners entering public schools means a lighter price tag on local and state school budgets.
Caveats worth noting
This is a political and policy claim dressed up in arithmetic, and it deserves careful scrutiny. The Texas figures AAF cited were preliminary and the Texas Education Agency’s final 2025–26 numbers were expected later. Enrollment shifts can come from many places: changes at the border, internal migration, births and cohort sizes, charter or home schooling, or even district coding and reporting changes. AAF attributes the change to President Trump’s immigration enforcement — that’s an interpretation, not a multi‑factor causal proof. Still, the scale of the drop is headline‑worthy and should push officials to get the final data out and explain what really happened.
Bottom line: policy and politics
If these numbers hold up, they are good news for taxpayers and for the schools that aren’t being stretched thinner by rapidly rising ELL rolls. Republican governors and local leaders should press for the final state reports, demand transparent accounting, and consider how saved dollars can be returned to classrooms. Democrats and budget hawks alike will argue over causes; conservatives should enjoy a rare moment where stronger border enforcement and clearer spending priorities line up. Either way, the memo forces a practical question: if enforcement reduces a near‑billion‑dollar burden in two states, why wouldn’t policymakers pay attention?
