Staff Reports
A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies / Los Angeles Times poll has shoved the Los Angeles mayoral race into the headlines. Councilmember Nithya Raman now leads Mayor Karen Bass in the runoff, but the numbers tell two very different stories at once: an exciting lead for one candidate and a warning sign about how close this race really is.
New poll: Raman leads Bass in LA mayoral runoff
The Berkeley IGS / L.A. Times poll shows Nithya Raman at 39% and Mayor Karen Bass at 28% among likely city voters, with a huge 33% still undecided. The survey of 2,150 likely voters was conducted Sept. 15–20 with a margin of error of about ±3 points. That margin matters — and so does the giant block of undecided voters. A lead like Raman’s looks impressive on paper, but the race is far from locked up.
What the numbers hide: undecideds, turnout and voter mood
Dig into the poll and the cracks start to show. Bass has a high unfavorable rating — roughly 63% — which explains why she’s trailing. Raman dominates younger voters, with very strong support from people under 30. But when a third of likely voters haven’t made up their minds, turnout and late campaign moves can flip this whole story. Campaigns will spend the next weeks trying to persuade those undecideds and get their people to the polls. It’s where spin, ad buys and late debates do real work — not tweets about labels.
Raman versus Mamdani: a campaign test, not a governing one
Some outlets are already comparing Raman to Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York, and sure, both use the “socialist” label. But there’s a big difference: Mamdani won and now has to govern a massive city. He pushed big promises on rent, childcare and transit and is learning quickly about budgets, state politics and the limits of city power. Raman is still trying to win. Leading in a poll is not the same as running a city budget, negotiating with the state or keeping the streets safe. Voters should remember that labels sound neat on a campaign poster but get messy in a budget meeting.
What Angelenos should watch and why it matters
If you live in Los Angeles, don’t be dazzled by a poll headline. Watch who turns out, who picks up the undecided voters, and how each campaign answers questions about homelessness, public safety and city finances. Raman’s labor endorsements and ties to local DSA allies matter in a campaign. Bass’s high unfavorables and incumbent baggage matter, too. This race could reshape city policy — or it could be another round of headlines that fade after the votes are counted. Either way, Angelenos deserve clear plans, not slogans. And if you like surprises, keep cheering for the undecideds — they love them.
