Staff Reports
Denton County delivered a political split that should make Republicans think — and soon. In the same election cycle, Representative Brandon Gill carried the portion of Denton County inside Texas’ 26th Congressional District and won reelection in the full district, while the county as a whole backed U.S. Senator‑elect James Talarico over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate. The numbers and the geography tell different stories — and both matter.
What the returns actually say
Look at the votes and the math is simple: countywide returns for the Senate race show James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by roughly eight points in Denton County, while the Denton County portion of the 26th District gave Representative Brandon Gill a slim victory over Democrat Steven Shook. Gill’s margin in the full 26th District was much larger once you add Cooke and Wise counties, where he racked up blowout margins that carried him to a clear overall win. The catch is precinct lines — the countywide Senate totals include 253 precincts, while only 188 precincts lie inside the 26th. Comparing them without that context is sloppy math, not reporting.
Why Denton split — and why it matters
There are three plain reasons for the split-ticket result: district lines, local geography, and candidates. Southern and rural parts of the 26th in Cooke and Wise counties are solid Republican turf and gave Gill the cushion he needed. Meanwhile, Denton’s suburban and urban precincts tilted toward Talarico — the same suburban voters who have been trending away from hard-right, scandal-plagued figures. Paxton’s legal troubles and the avalanche of outside spending didn’t help. So no, this wasn’t a mysterious “blue shift” eaten out of nowhere; it was predictable political geography plus candidate baggage.
Lessons for Republican voters and leaders
First lesson: candidate quality matters more than ad buys. You can throw money at a campaign, but you can’t buy credibility when voters have doubts about character or competence. Second: don’t treat suburbs like a monolith. Denton County proved you can win local seats with strong ground games and sensible messaging even while losing the top of the ticket countywide. Third: stop outsourcing talent hunting to trickle‑down consultants and dark‑money groups. If Republicans want to stop losing statewide races, they need credible nominees who can win suburban and independent voters, not just rally the base.
So what’s the takeaway? Celebrate Gill’s victory — it shows conservative resilience in the district — but don’t kid yourself that one House win erases a statewide problem. Denton County’s split vote is both a warning and a chance: Republicans can hold local ground if they get serious about candidates and messaging, or they can keep losing statewide if they deliver the same tired playbook and controversial nominees. The choice, as always, is theirs.
