Staff Reports
New York City’s crime story is getting sold as a triumph — one neat stat about fewer murders wrapped in a mayoral press conference and called proof that socialism works on public safety. The Manhattan Institute’s new City Journal essay throws cold water on that sales pitch. It shows murders and shootings have fallen sharply, but a host of other crimes — from car thefts to felony assaults — are rising compared with the pre‑pandemic baseline.
The narrow win: murders down, other crimes up
The NYPD and Police Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch rightly point to record lows in murders and shootings. The department reports historic lows for the month and year‑to‑date totals, and Mayor Zohran Mamdani has loudly claimed the drop as a signature victory. But Rafael A. Mangual’s Manhattan Institute piece digs deeper. Using a 2019 baseline, he finds murders and shootings are down, yes, but car thefts have surged (the analysis shows figures as high as a 144 percent rise), felony assaults are up nearly 50 percent, and several other major‑crime categories — robbery, burglary, grand larceny and misdemeanor assault — sit higher than before the pandemic. That’s not a broad public‑safety win. It’s a very focused one.
What explains the split?
Tail‑risk policing and focused takedowns
Both sides actually agree on the mechanics. The CrimRxiv research and Mangual argue — persuasively — that a small group of offenders drives most lethal violence. Targeted enforcement and gang takedowns can take those high‑risk people off the street and cut shootings and murders fast. The NYPD credits the same playbook, plus more than 3,000 guns seized this year. Fine. Targeted policing works for lethal violence. The problem is it doesn’t automatically fix everyday thefts, break‑ins, or rising assaults. If you concentrate police muscle on the tail risk, the rest of the beast can keep gnawing at the city.
Politics and the reality New Yorkers face
Mayor Mamdani’s press releases read like campaign literature: one crime stat gets the headline, the rest of the city’s pain gets a footnote. That’s politics, not policy. Choosing a favorable comparison year — 2025 vs. 2019 vs. month‑to‑month — changes the headline, but it doesn’t change the fact that many New Yorkers still worry about being mugged, their cars stolen, or their shops hit. If the city wants a real public‑safety win, it means more than photo ops celebrating fewer murders. It means replenishing patrols, prosecutorial follow‑through, smarter deployments against retail theft and auto theft rings, and honest talk about metrics and baselines.
So let’s be blunt: applause for a drop in homicides is deserved, but it can’t be the cloak that hides rising property crime and assaults. Targeted policing should be expanded and reinforced, not turned into a PR stunt. Mayor Mamdani and Commissioner Tisch should keep the takedowns coming — and then do the harder work of turning those narrow gains into broader safety for every block. New Yorkers want fewer funerals and fewer theft reports. They deserve both, not just one polished number and a lot of spin.
