Staff Reports
A fresh wave of coverage is breathing new life into the Honan Strategy Group’s “5 Borough Barometer” — a New York City poll that says many local Democrats are fed up with their own party and open to younger, more progressive challengers. Pundits are already calling it proof of a leftward shift and a green light for DSA‑aligned insurgents. Slow down. The poll is useful, and its toplines are striking, but it is a snapshot with limits — and the Democratic schism it reveals could help conservatives too.
What the Honan poll actually shows
The Honan 5 Borough Barometer, fielded Dec. 4–12, 2025, surveyed 848 likely New York City voters using a text‑to‑web method (margin of error ≈ ±3.3 points). It found broad support for policies tied to the city’s progressive wing, with summaries showing roughly 56% backing some of the democratic‑socialist ideas championed by figures like Zohran Mamdani. The survey also found mixed views about party leadership: fewer than two‑thirds of Democrats gave the party a favorable rating in that snapshot, and large majorities opposed ICE raids and wanted limits on NYPD cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. Bradley Honan, president and CEO of Honan Strategy Group, called the results “a remarkable finding” and said they show “further left migration of Democratic politics and policies in New York City.”
Don’t conflate city snapshots with national trends
Here’s where reporters and cable pundits get sloppy. The Honan poll is city‑specific and was done in early December 2025. That matters. Political moods change — sometimes fast. National commentary, like CNN’s Harry Enten pointing to rising favorability for “socialism” among Democrats, mixes separate national surveys with Honan’s NYC snapshot. Those national figures are not the same as the city toplines. Methodology also matters: an 848‑person text‑to‑web sample gives a useful needle but is not a rolling national tracker. Translation: the poll is real and newsworthy, but it isn’t a crystal ball for every race on the June primary calendar.
Why this matters for the primaries — and for Republicans
New York’s partisan primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026, and pundits say the Honan findings could help insurgent progressive and DSA‑aligned candidates in close Democratic primaries. That’s plausible. If Democrats are nominating on passion rather than pragmatism, they may produce general‑election candidates who cannot win citywide majorities or who hand ammunition to opponents on crime, drugs, and immigration. For conservatives, the spectacle of a party eating itself is an opportunity. But don’t get cute: in many districts the Democratic primary winner is likely the general‑election favorite. So the immediate implication is not a Republican sweep — it’s a brawl inside the Democratic tent that could shape who faces voters in November.
Bottom line: a useful warning, not a forecast
The Honan 5 Borough Barometer is worth paying attention to. It shows real discontent among New York City Democrats with their leadership and real openness to progressive insurgents. But it is a late‑2025 snapshot of a big, diverse city — not a prediction for every primary outcome in June 2026. Conservatives should enjoy the Democrats’ internal squabbles while preparing for the very real risk that radical nominees could still win safe blue seats. If anything, the poll is a reminder: when a party becomes more interested in ideology than in governing, it hands the rest of us a clear choice — and a chance to win the argument at a ballot box near you.
