Staff Reports
This spring’s survey from the Association of Washington Business dropped a loud, clear alarm: roughly one in four Washington employers say they are thinking about moving their business out of state. That jump in employer flight risk is the news hook — and it lines up with other warning signs showing money and people quietly slipping away from the Seattle area.
What the AWB survey actually found
The AWB poll of more than 400 employers reported about 24% are considering relocation, up from roughly 17% the prior quarter. The survey also found about 18% actively developing plans and roughly 7% already with an out‑of‑state footprint locked down. As AWB President & CEO Kris Johnson warned, this is not the sort of number policymakers can shrug off. Remember: the survey measures sentiment — what business leaders plan or want to do — but sentiment becomes reality if officials keep piling on costs.
Why businesses and high earners are shopping for exits
Business groups and real‑estate trackers point to the same culprits: higher taxes, rising costs, and an uncertain downtown. Seattle’s new Social Housing Tax, the JumpStart payroll expense tax, and the state’s high‑earner income tax have combined to make running a company or keeping top talent more expensive. Redfin’s migration tracker shows Seattle-area home‑buyers searching outside the metro at an unusual rate, and IRS county‑to‑county files show King County losing tens of thousands of filers and roughly two billion dollars in adjusted gross income in the last year analyzed. Put bluntly: the people who pay the bills are looking at cheaper places to live and work.
What’s at stake for Seattle — and who to blame
The practical effects are obvious. Less AGI means a weaker tax base for public safety, schools, and transportation. Empty office towers and rising vacancy rates hurt landlords and downtown merchants. Downtown Seattle Association leaders have publicly said jobs and investment are migrating to Bellevue and the suburbs — the predictable result when city policy makes doing business harder. Mayor Katie Wilson and Governor Bob Ferguson can argue the new revenue funds social goals, but they can’t pretend higher taxes have no impact on whether firms stay or go. If leaders want people to stick around, they’ll have to stop treating employers like limitless ATM machines.
The choice ahead for voters and policymakers
There are real caveats: the AWB survey measures intent, Redfin measures searches not signings, and IRS migration files lag. But these signals point in the same direction. If Seattle and Olympia keep choosing tax hikes over business attraction and public safety, the exodus will accelerate and the city will get the bill. Lawmakers can reverse course, trim burdens, and make the region competitive again — or they can stand by and watch more families and companies load the moving truck. Voters should remember that when the next election comes around.
