Staff Reports
Last Thursday’s debate was nothing short of a spectacle, and not in a good way if your name happens to be Joe Biden. It was a disaster film playing out on live television with Biden fumbling through another round of verbal missteps. Meanwhile, his Democratic buddies are desperately trying to put out the raging fire that is his presidency. The mainstream media is reluctantly dragging itself to report on the chaos, and the polls are dishing out some harsh reality checks, particularly in key battleground states where Biden is already struggling.
On Tuesday, Cygnal released a poll that delivered a gut punch to Biden’s already floundering campaign, showing him trailing by 4 points in his own stomping grounds, Pennsylvania. Pollster Brent Buchanan painted a grim picture, suggesting Biden’s path to victory could soon resemble a narrow dirt trail, if it exists at all. With 55% of Pennsylvania voters giving Biden and his party a thumbs down, it’s hard to see how things could get better for the beleaguered President.
Adding to Biden’s woes, Trump leads with 48.3% of likely voters, compared to Biden’s 44%, with the remaining undecideds holding the fate of the race in their hands. It gets gloomier for Biden in mid-size counties where 52.8% back Trump, and among swing voters, Trump’s support stands tall at 36.7% while Biden languishes at 29.6%. Those who tuned into the debate, Trump’s lead extends to an even more convincing 53-41%. Ouch.
Town Hall: RESIDENT Biden's Path Is 'Narrow to None' If He Loses This Key State https://t.co/M5Sx08kQns
— Ian Hansen 🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@IanHansenFeed) July 3, 2024
Trump’s support is rock-solid among Republicans, with an overwhelming 91% pledging their votes, and 83% of them doing so with a sense of determined certainty. On the flip side, Biden can only muster 85% from his fellow Democrats, and even fewer, 74%, say they’ll “definitely” vote for him. The 2020 Trump loyalists are still firmly in his camp, with 95% of them sticking around for round two, while Biden’s hold on his 2020 voters seems shakier by the day.
When factoring in third-party candidates, Trump’s lead persists, holding 42.4% of the vote to Biden’s 38.1%. In mid-size counties, Trump stretches his lead even further, basking in 48% support compared to Biden’s 37.1%. Among swing voters, Trump’s lead is clear, leaving Biden at a dismal 19.6%. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. catches up with Biden, peeling away 21.2% of these voters.
Both candidates don’t exactly ooze charm, but Biden seems to be the bigger scapegoat. A staggering 60.2% of likely voters have grown tired of Biden, and that number ticks up significantly among swing voters. Trump, while not winning any Mr. Congeniality awards, fares better with a 53.4% unfavorable rating among likely voters. Predictably, Biden’s unfavorable ratings spike among mid-size county voters and swing voters alike, overshadowing Trump’s numbers.
Arriving at the Senate race in Pennsylvania, it’s clear Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. is digging in his heels alongside Biden, much to the delight of his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick. Casey barely clings to a lead, teetering at 45.8% compared to McCormick’s 42.1%. McCormick enjoys an edge among mid-size county voters but still faces an uphill battle with swing voters who seem to indulge in indecision.
Pennsylvania’s political climate is ripening for a Republican resurgence. A significant chunk of voters thinks it’s high time for a new face, and this sentiment shared by nearly half of mid-size county voters. Even with Casey’s political pedigree, voters are leaning towards checks and balances on Biden’s policies, providing a glimmer of hope for McCormick and the GOP.
In sum, the Keystone State is shaping up to be a battlefield where the Republican momentum is undeniable. The poll insights suggest that despite the Democratic money machine’s best efforts, Republicans stand a fighting chance. As they say, the proof is in the pudding—or in this case, the poll numbers. With a large majority convinced the nation is off track and inflation front and center, the stage is set for an electoral showdown. Pennsylvania, buckle up.
