Staff Reports
The Center for Immigration Studies released a headline-grabbing analysis today saying the U.S. foreign‑born population fell by 2.9 million since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025. The study, which relies on the Census Bureau’s monthly household survey (the CPS), argues that net migration has gone negative and that the unauthorized population may have shrunk by about 2.3 million. If true, this is the sort of reversal that reshapes the immigration debate — and the politics — almost overnight.
CIS analysis: a big drop in the foreign‑born population
The Center for Immigration Studies says the CPS shows the total foreign‑born population declined 2.9 million between January 2025 and July 2026. Steven Camarota, CIS’s director of research, calls it an “enormous decrease” and estimates the unauthorized population fell roughly 2.3 million. The group points to a mix of deportations, voluntary departures, and sharply reduced border encounters under President Trump’s policies as the driving forces. President Trump himself has boasted that he “closed our border,” and the Department of Homeland Security has celebrated months of “zero releases” at the southern border under Secretary Markwayne Mullin’s enforcement strategy.
Federal data back the direction — but statisticians urge caution
The Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 work also documented a steep fall in net international migration after a 2024 peak. The Bureau found NIM fell from about 2.7 million in 2024 to roughly 1.3 million in 2025 and projected a much smaller number for 2026 if trends held. At the same time, BLS/CPS published tables for the foreign‑born civilian population (age 16+) show a smaller but measurable decline. Census staff warn that month‑to‑month CPS changes can reflect true emigration but also survey nonresponse or coverage error. In plain English: the trend is real, but pinning an exact number or a single cause is still a bit like trying to nail Jell‑O to the wall.
How the numbers were counted
It matters that CIS used the CPS, a timely household survey of about 60,000 households, to scale up to a full population estimate and then infer legal status changes. That approach is useful and fast — and also sensitive to sampling error and assumptions. The Census Bureau combined multiple data sources to reach its official figures, and independent demographers will keep pressing for administrative confirmation from DHS, ICE and Customs and Border Protection to separate removals from voluntary departures and from fewer new arrivals.
Why this matters for policy, jobs and politics
If the decline is driven largely by enforcement and reduced arrivals, it is a vindication of the Trump administration’s border strategy and a powerful talking point for conservatives. It also carries real policy consequences: fewer new workers can ease downward pressure on wages in some sectors, but it can also exacerbate labor shortages in farming, construction and caregiving. Democrats will call for nuance and say survey quirks matter; conservatives should welcome the nuance — and still demand the facts. The administration should publish the administrative data that back up bold claims so taxpayers can see the full picture.
Bottom line: big claim, confirmed trend, more proof needed
The CIS release is a newsworthy, fresh analysis that lines up with the Census Bureau’s own finding of a sharp drop in net international migration. That’s the headline conservatives want: border security that works. But reputable statisticians are right to caution that translating survey shifts into exact deportation counts or legal‑status tallies requires more evidence. So celebrate the direction, demand the data, and don’t be surprised if this becomes the defining immigration story of the year — whether the left likes it or not.
