Staff Reports
President Donald J. Trump is headed back to Texas next week for two rallies in Lubbock and Waco to boost Attorney General Ken Paxton as early voting is underway. If you think the pollsters have this race figured out, you haven’t been paying attention. This visit is a clear, focused effort to get Republicans out to vote in the closing stretch of a tight Texas Senate race.
Trump rallies Texas: Lubbock and Waco are no accident
The RNC has confirmed the two-stop swing, and Paxton will appear at both events. These stops are being marketed as get-out-the-vote rallies in heavily Republican metros where Paxton needs to shore up turnout. Trump’s presence is meant to do exactly what it always does: energize the base, generate local excitement, and push everyday voters into the polling booths. Lubbock and Waco are not random picks — they are places where Republicans can pad margins and blunt defections from uneasy conservatives.
Polls say Talarico leads; pollsters get the usual heat
Yes, the New York Times/Siena poll shows State Representative James Talarico ahead in some toplines, and other surveys paint a mixed picture. That’s the point: polls in this race swing. Some give Talarico a lead, others show a much tighter contest. Conservatives have good reason to distrust pollsters who often act like they’re writing the script while we’re supposed to sit quietly. Whether the polls are right or not, Democrats are treating them like gospel — and Democrats always love a narrative that makes them feel good.
Why Trump’s presence matters more than pundits admit
Trump isn’t on the ballot, but he influences turnout. He knows how to fill halls and convert energy into votes. Paxton has baggage that Democrats and some Republicans use to try to peel off support; that’s why national Republicans are leaning on Trump to shore things up. Add in lingering John Cornyn supporters who are grumpy about recent intra-party fights, and you have a real turnout problem if the base stays home. Trump’s rallies aim to fix that by reminding voters what a loss in Texas would mean — and by giving them a good reason to show up.
What to watch: turnout, post-rally spikes, and poll averages
The key things to monitor are local turnout numbers in Lubbock and Waco during the early-voting window and any immediate bump in donations or volunteer sign-ups after the rallies. Single polls will bounce; averages matter more. If multiple reputable surveys keep Talarico ahead, the GOP will have to double down. But if Trump’s visits produce a tangible turnout swing in Republican strongholds, watch the race tighten quickly. Bottom line: the pollsters can write their stories, but votes still have to be cast.
So enjoy the headlines and the hot takes, but remember how campaigns are actually won: by getting real people to the polls. The Democrats can fancy up their poll numbers all they like. In a state like Texas, a fired-up base led by a major draw like President Trump is still a very simple, very effective answer.
