Staff Reports
Former President Donald Trump appears to be in a strong position in the race for the 2024 presidential election, especially in key states like Arizona and Florida. Despite narrowly losing Arizona to President Joe Biden in 2020, current polls show that Trump is leading in both states. The recent release of polling data indicates that Biden is facing challenges on the economy and immigration, which are important issues in these states and the country as a whole.
Poll Spells Bad News for Biden in Arizona https://t.co/Qu7i2LlcfL
— Biff Smallberries (@B_Smallberries) May 21, 2024
A CBS News poll revealed that Trump has a 5-point lead over Biden in Arizona and a 9-point lead in Florida, with a higher percentage of likely voters already supporting Trump as the presumptive Republican nominee. This is significant, as Trump previously won Florida in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, and lost Arizona by a narrow margin in 2020.
The issue of abortion has been a focal point for the Biden reelection campaign, especially in Arizona and Florida where there are ballot initiatives on the topic. However, the CBS News poll suggests that the abortion issue may not have a substantial impact on the presidential race in these states. While there is general support for abortion rights, it does not necessarily translate into votes for Biden, particularly among Republicans who also support abortion in certain cases.
Moreover, the polling data indicates that voters in Arizona are more concerned about the economy, inflation, and immigration than the abortion issue. In fact, these economic and immigration issues seem to have more influence on the voters’ choices for president. This poses a challenge for Biden, who is trailing in Arizona and faces difficulties in motivating parts of his Democratic base.
The findings also suggest that Trump’s stance on abortion, which favors leaving the issue to the states, resonates with a plurality of voters in Arizona. Additionally, a majority of registered voters in the state do not feel that recent developments regarding abortion, including the overturning of Roe v. Wade, significantly affect their motivation for the presidential election.
Economic factors, such as the state of the national and Arizona economies, inflation, and the candidates’ perceived policies, are prioritized by voters in Arizona over the abortion issue. This poses a significant challenge for Biden, as a majority of voters believe that Biden’s policies could worsen their financial situation if he wins in 2024, while a significant percentage perceive Trump’s policies as potentially beneficial.
On immigration, the polling data suggests that a majority of registered voters in Arizona believe that the Biden administration has been too lenient toward immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. This contrasts with the perception of the Trump administration’s handling of immigration policies, with a plurality of voters indicating that it was appropriate. Furthermore, a substantial portion of voters in Arizona feel that Biden’s policies prioritize immigrants over U.S. citizens.
The CBS News poll highlights the importance of economic and immigration issues in shaping the 2024 presidential race in Arizona and Florida. While abortion remains a topic of discussion, it appears to be outweighed by concerns about the economy and immigration among voters in these states. This poses a significant challenge for the Biden campaign, as they seek to address these issues and garner support in key swing states for the upcoming election.
