Staff Reports
A Democrat, Will Rollins, is slightly ahead of the longtime Republican incumbent, Rep. Ken Calvert, in California’s 41st Congressional District, according to internal polling commissioned by the Rollins campaign and shared with the Washington Examiner. Rollins, a former counterterrorism prosecutor, leads Calvert by 1 point among voters in the district, as indicated by the survey. This race is seen as crucial as national Democrats aim to gain control of the House next year. Among likely voters, 45% expressed support for Rollins, while 44% would vote for Calvert, with 9% remaining undecided.
Although internal polling is often viewed with skepticism, this race is considered one of the most competitive in the 2024 election cycle. The Rollins campaign suggests that a challenger leading a long-time incumbent at this point in the race indicates a desire for change in the district. The survey predicts a nearly equal split between registered Democrats and Republicans in the district, but independents, who make up 17% of the voters, could be the key factor in the outcome of the race.
Rollins emphasized the need for change in Congress, stating, “30 years is far too long for anyone to serve in Congress, especially the career politicians who are using their office to enrich themselves at the expense of working people.” On the other hand, Calvert’s campaign is confident in his chances for reelection, pointing to his previous victories in election cycles. Calvert has served in Congress since 1993 and represents one of the most competitive districts heading into the November election.
The poll, conducted by David Binder Research, surveyed 600 likely voters, including 100 independents, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The district is rated as R+3 and is considered a toss-up by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. While the outcome of the race remains uncertain, the competition between Rollins and Calvert underscores the high stakes as both parties vie for control of Congress in the upcoming election.
